Johan Fourie's blog

I'd rather be a comma than a fullstop

Africa’s investment opportunities

with 5 comments

Daniel Altman, Harvard-trained economist and journalist, has created what he calls a Baseline Profitability Index. In short, the index aims to rank markets for foreign investment based on asset growth, preservation of value, and repatriation of capital to help investors decide where to “really put their hard-earned cash”. Altman’s BPI seems to be an index of indices: he’s used the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators, Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, the Property Rights Alliance and Americans for Tax Reform’s International Property Right Index, Simeon Djankov, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer’s index of investor protection, and Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito’s index of financial openness. All thrown in the same pot, the magic potion is stirred (according to Altman the alchemist’s algorithm) and out pops the BPI.

The full ranking (published in Foreign Policy) includes 102 countries, 17 of which are African (14 are sub-Saharan African). The top 50, listed below, include 12 African countries, with three of the top ten being the African countries of Botswana (second), Rwanda (fifth) and Ghana (tenth). South Africa ranks 41st, scoring high on the Preservation of Value-category but performing worse than all other African countries (except Nigeria) on the Repatriation of Capital. I’m not sure what the reason for such a low ranking is (and, to be honest, it is surprisingly low), but it could possibly be due to South Africa’s still-existing capital controls or the threat of expropriation (in mining, for example) over the last few years (although the threat has considerably weakened since the ANC’s policy conference in December 2012.) Interestingly, two African countries that have received a lot of press coverage over the last few years – Kenya and Nigeria – are amongst the worst performers on the list: Kenya comes in at 67th, while Nigeria can only reach 95th. Altman’s index has a clear warning for investors with dollars in their eyes: don’t only consider potential growth of these markets, but the preservation of value and repatriation of capital too.

There are a few surprises, too. Germany, one of the few European countries to witness positive growth over the last few years, doesn’t feature in the top 50 (it’s 53rd). In fact, Eastern Europe seems to be a lucrative destination: Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Latvia and Slovakia all feature in the top 30. Only two of the so-called BRICS are in the top 50: China (21st) and South Africa (41st). Surprisingly, Brazil (91st) and Russia (98th) languish at the bottom. Is Burkina Faso really a better investment opportunity than Brazil?

BPI

Fifty highest-ranked countries on Daniel Altman’s BPI. African countries in bold. Source: Foreign Policy 2013

As with any list, there are weaknesses. Why are other African gems (like Tanzania, or Malawi, or Namibia, or … yes, Zimbabwe) not included on the list? Presumably it’s data constraints, but this should be corrected in a future BPI. Also, could a 2000 ranking not be calculated from the same data sources? Tracking the change over time, especially for African countries, could be interesting and, perhaps, suggest some policy implications.

Altman’s list provides more evidence of the profitability of African markets. But it also shows that investors should not be be blinded by the bling of big bucks. A careful assessment of risk and return remains the cornerstone of a sound investment.

Advertisements

Written by Johan Fourie

May 10, 2013 at 09:29

5 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Love this article, is this marketable to such investors?

    changingliveswithbusiness

    October 18, 2014 at 11:45

  2. Africa is also experiencing a revolution in the area of renewable energy and clean energy – making it an area for potential investment – for instance : http://constructionreviewonline.com/2014/09/12/china-invest-us2b-new-solar-power-projects-morocco/

    Njue Kariuki

    September 18, 2014 at 18:07

  3. Have you checked out the latest list? Botswana made it to the top. You might also be interested in our list of the Most Liveable Cities in Africa (in which Gaborone is included). Have a look here – http://www.africa.com/blog/the_top_10_most_liveable_cities_in_africa/ – would be interested to know what you think. The factors highlighted in piece is relevant to those foreigners looking to not just invest in Africa, but who are actually also considering move there.

    Africa.com

    June 9, 2014 at 11:16

  4. Great information on investment opportunity in Africa. Thanks for sharing. Keep posting the good stuff!!

    Jame Rich

    February 14, 2014 at 12:55

  5. Great article! Just a minor correction: 3 BRICS countries are in the top 50. You neglected India.

    kimeshan

    May 25, 2013 at 15:57


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: