Johan Fourie's blog

I'd rather be a comma than a fullstop

Debt and development

with 3 comments

Helanya and I are buying a house. It’s actually not a house, it’s more a sort of tiny, small, little flatlet in the center of Stellenbosch. Did I mention it’s not huge? And, to be perfectly honest, the bank’s buying it for us.

Except if you’re desperately fortunate, or willing to rent for the remainder of your life (which seems to be a good option at this moment), debt is as certain as death and taxes. Debt is, of course, not a new phenomenon (consider Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice), but it’s often perceived as something bad (consider Shylock), like some contagious disease that everyone wants to avoid but everyone ends up getting. The recent financial crisis, with the subprime mortgage crisis as its proximate cause, did not help.

But debt and credit markets may just be one of the most important institutions of development. Mohammad Yunus, founder of the Grameen Bank and winner of the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize, has shown how micro-loans to the poor can both be profitable and an instrument of development. Hernando de Soto argued in The Mystery of Capital that the difference between the West and the rest is that property rights are protected in rich countries. This allows everyone, even the poorest, to use their meager assets as collateral to borrow money and invest in themselves or other profitable opportunities. The poor in poor countries don’t have property rights and so cannot go the bank to ask for a loan. Of course, this implies well functioning credit markets that are able and willing to provide those loans. Van Zanden, Zuijderduijn and De Moor (2012), for example, argue that capital market institutions in Holland were fairly efficient in the fifteenth century; there were very low interest rates (in fact, no higher than they are today) and the owners of capital offered access to credit at low cost to men and women and to rich and poor households because the Dutch towns solved the “de Soto problem” by keeping records of all transactions and ensuring the transparency of the legal system. This widespread use of credit and debt during the fifteenth century would play a significant role in ensuring that Holland would emerge as the wealthiest country in the seventeenth centuries. Using probate inventories, Ogilvie, Küpker and Maegraith (2012) show that even in the poorest parts of rural, central Europe (parts of modern-day Germany), debt was an important tool to smooth consumption and invest in profitable ventures, also at relatively low interest rates – much different from the poor today.

Cape probate inventories also suggest that the market for credit in the eighteenth century Dutch Cape Colony was active. In the inventories I use, 40% of all household assets (of those households that report debt) are owed to someone else. Perhaps the early credit market of Cape settlers is a cause of their eighteenth century prosperity (Fourie and Van Zanden 2012). And to take this even further, perhaps South Africa’s well-developed financial market today (South Africa is first – yes, first! – on the World Bank Doing Business list in the category ‘ease of getting credit’) is a consequence of our earlier settler credit markets.

It’s not likely that such a link can be demonstrated. But there’s no doubt that such history effects the present and often repeats itself. Here’s the Cape governor’s report on the state of Louis Fourie’s finances, my great great great great great great great grandfather, in 1731: “Louis Fourie – owns property, yet not without debt” (Shell 2007). Santé, grandpa!

Written by Johan Fourie

May 4, 2012 at 15:24

3 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Geachte Dr, Fourie,

    It’s delightful to see a historically sophistcated economist at Mathies!

    Still, I don’t think credit markets are a key to growth. They’re too universal. For example, they were excellent in 4th-century BCE Greece. Yet no modern economic growth there.

    Sincerely,

    Deirdre McCloskey

    Deirdre McCloskey

    May 6, 2012 at 00:07

    • Thank you for your comment, prof McCloskey. Credit markets may have been excellent in 4th-century BCE Greece, but so, too, was the institution of slavery. And as recent evidence suggests (Wright 2006; see also my post on Slavenomics where I cite Suresh Naido’s work), excellent property rights in slavery may have exactly the opposite effect on growth. The result: interacting credit markets and property rights in people results in no long-run growth; it’s the interaction of land property rights and credit markets that possibly holds the key.

      See you soon in Stellenbosch!

      Johan Fourie

      May 12, 2012 at 06:11

  2. This comment does not intend to minimize the importance of credit markets for economic development, but to caution against the study of property rights without attention to the political economy basis. Property rights in the rest are protected for some social strata: the poor usually either have no resources to obtain legal protection for their assets, or the initial distribution of assets was biased against them, or forms of collective property legally recognized prove difficult to be taken as collateral for individual loans. De Soto takes the distribution of income and wealth as given, and so we are unable to see that original arrangements have path dependency consequences. Property records in Latin America are usually impressive in terms of the quality of the data, however, they are skewed in the sense that they reflect the assets of a minority of the population. Thus, sources might provide a biased picture of equality in the access to property…

    Manuel Bautista

    May 5, 2012 at 21:17


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 318 other followers

%d bloggers like this: